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Saturday, October 08, 2005 

Sloth: Week 5 Packer Prediction

The Packers are bad, they were bad all along and I didn’t (or wouldn’t) see it until now. This week they are also the walking wounded. We saw that Brett Favre still had all the skills to be an MVP, except the supporting cast. Now the weak supporting cast is decimated by injury.

The only pleasant surprise has been the defense, which is playing well enough to win if there were a reasonable offense. I think that the defense will again be slightly more than adequate this week, which against New Orleans is more than enough.

Saints (2-2) at Packers (0-4) (-3) Over/Under: 41.5

New Orleans will be without standout WR Joe Horn, so they will be looking to RB Deuce McAllister more this week. I think he is up to the challenge. The Packers will be selling out on the run as long as Deuce can keep the run threat credible. The Saints will then look to exploit the weakness in the defensive backfield. This is where I question their ability; I don’t think they have the talent to fully exploit the Packers (or anyone else) without Horn.

RB Najeh Davenport and the patchwork offensive line is the real key to the game. If they get on track against a weak run defense, the Packers have a chance this week to remove the goose egg in the win column. Najeh has every reason to “be all he can be” in his second ever start, his contract is up after this year. He will be running for dollars, which is OK with me. Personally, I think we should pay the man and keep him in the starting lineup. He is a punishing runner with decent hands in the passing game, is a big man that can help keep Brett upright and rarely fumbles. RB Ahman Green is smallish, but does a good job in blitz pickup and is a fantastic receiver, but he is a fumbler. I love him, but dam it is hard to see him cough up the ball regularly.

In a shocker, I am picking the Saints to win (and cover), too close to call on the O/U so I will abstain. I hope I am wrong.

Saints 21
Packers 20

Fantasy Players: Najeh Davenport, Deuce McAllister

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